The Huffington Post
By Chris Genovali and Misty MacDuffee
A spokesperson for Enbridge Inc. recently claimed that the chance of a catastrophic spill from the oil tanker traffic which would accompany the energy giant’s proposed pipeline from the Alberta tar sands to British Columbia’s north coast was “one in 15,000 years.”
However, the “independent risk analysis” commissioned by Enbridge suffers from industry’s usual self-serving biases, primary amongst these being an over-emphasis on imprecise and unknowable probability as opposed to impact or consequence. This is the recipe for “Black Swans,” the highly improbable and unpredictable events that have massive impact.
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